Spatial – Local Evaluation and Analysis of Crimes Using Time Series Model and ARCGIS Software

Mohammad Hassan Rahmani

Department of human science, Faculty of Geography, Payame Noor University, Boein Zahra, Iran.

ABSTRACT: Subject of current research is illegal behaviors and acts and disorders known as crime during research time period which occurred in central part of Qazvin city. They are acts with are against society’s moral values and national rules and are defined as crime according to the law and punishment is determined for them and were recorded as crime in police centers during research time period and for which file has been formed. To this end, the crimes related to theft from March 2011 to February 2011 as well as two years ago and one year later crimes were recorded and investigated in ARCGIS Software. Spatial identification and analysis of crime vulnerable foci in central part of Qazvin city was done by developing a database for these thefts and using statistical and graphical tests in ARC GIS software environment. Results for temporal analysis in this research indicated applying specific time and location in providing spatial patterns for crimes is not useful, because times of presenting statistics may not be correct due to two wanted and unwanted mistakes: 1. Providing incorrect information by peopled being robbed for different reasons such as lack of presence at home or reluctance for referring in early hours of theft, and 2. intentional and inadvertent errors in recording statistics by system users for various reasons. Investigation of type, composition and level of use of lands in central part of city and frequency crime occurrence indicate most crimes occurred in commercial and administrative areas of this part of city denoting relationship between type of land use and the way of using lands of central part and formation of crime foci.

KEYWORDS: cluster analysis; ARCGIS software; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Time series; modeling

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