Predicting Crimes Using Time Series Model and ARCGIS Software

Mohammad Hassan Rahmani

Department of Human Science, Faculty of Geography, Payame Noor University, Boein Zahra, Iran.

ABSTRACT: Possibility for predicting crimes using time series model and ARCGIS Software are investigated in the current work. Analysis and study of mutual relationship between skeletal environment of cities and social disorders and crimes is the subject which has been entered in geographical studies in recent decades and has become very important. Geographical information system was used in this work to predict crimes. To this end, the crimes related to theft from March 2011 to February 2011 as well as two years ago and one year later crimes were recorded and investigated in ARCGIS Software so that a solution can be found in providing time patterns by technical analysis. Thus, urban area was studied as statistical population. Then, using database of these crimes and statistical and graphical tests in ARC GIS environment, the crimes were predicted. Analytical – descriptive method was used as research method and it was an applied research study. Data and information were collected using library and field methods. Results show applying theft location to a conventional point in each district may be useful for providing an analytical model and then predicting and presenting solutions for police centers. Crime analysis maps are important tools in crime analysis and they can be necessary prerequisites for crime prediction.

KEYWORDS: Cluster analysis; ARCGIS software; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Time series; modeling

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