Predicting the Phase State of the Abundance Dynamics of Harmful Non-Gregarious Locusts in Northern Kazakhstan and Substantiation of Protective Measures

Kurmet Serikovich Baibussenov¹, Amageldy Taskalievich Sarbaev², Valery Kenessovich Azhbenov³, Vili Borisova Harizanova⁴

¹Kazah National Agrarian University, Kazakhstan, 050010, Almaty, Abaya avenue,8 ²Kazah Scientific-Research Institute of Cultivation and Crop Production, Kazakhstan, 040909, Almaty region, Karasay district, Almalybak village, Erlepesova street,1 ³Kazakh Agro Technical University named after S.Seifullin, Kazakhstan, 010000, Astana, Pobeda avenue, 62 ⁴Agricultural University- Plovdiv, Bulgaria, 4000, Plovdiv, Mendeleev blvd., 12

ABSTRACT: The paper presents research results in the field of long-term forecasting of the phase state of the harmful non-gregarious locusts of Northern Kazakhstan. The major predictors of pests’ phase state were developed based on modeling of their long-term abundance dynamics. Analyzing longstanding data of external factors (weather conditions and the area of chemical treatments) affecting the abundance dynamics of phytophaga, authors calculated the coefficients of regression equation. This may be one of the key factors in long-term forecasting of the phase state of abundance dynamics of harmful non-gregarious locusts in the Northern Kazakhstan regions. Also, based on the developed predictors, authors proved the area of agricultural lands to be treated at different phase states of studied phytophaga.

KEYWORDS: forecasting; phase state; population dynamics; non-gregarious locusts; protective measures; Northern Kazakhstan

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