Estimating the Parameters of Covid-19 Cases in South Africa

Surbhi Madan¹, Poonam Garg^2*, Ritu Arora³ and Dhiraj Kumar Singh⁴

¹Department of Mathematics, Shivaji College (University of Delhi), Raja Garden, New Delhi 110027, India.

²Department of Mathematics, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya College (University of Delhi), Azad Hind Fauj Marg, Dwarka, Delhi 110078, India.

³Department of Mathematics, Janki Devi Memorial College (University of Delhi), Sir Ganga Ram Hospital Marg, New Delhi 110060, India.

⁴Department of Mathematics, Zakir Husain Delhi College (University of Delhi), Jawaharlal Nehru Marg, Delhi 110002, India.

Corresponding Author E-mail:  pgarg@ddu.du.ac.in

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.13005/bbra/2974

ABSTRACT:

In this paper we employ SIR model to study the Covid-19 data of South Africa for a chosen period. This model is solved using three numerical methods, namely, Differential Transform Method (DTM), Multistage Differential Transform Method (MsDTM), Repeated Multistage Differential Transform Method (RMsDTM) to obtain approximations of the number of susceptible, active infected and recovered in South Africa for 60 days starting from June 1, 2021. The proximity of the solution of the RMsDTM to the actual data in comparison to solutions using the other two methods was observed. MsDTM is an improvement over DTM as it uses updated values of the variables as new initial conditions at each iteration of the method. RMsDTM, in which the values of parameters are also changed at suitable intervals of time, besides using updated values of variables is a further improvement over both these methods.

KEYWORDS: Approximation,; Covid-19; Differential Transform Method (DTM); Multistage Differential Transform Method (MsDTM); Pandemic; Repeated Multistage Differential Transform Method (RMsDTM); South Africa; SIR Model

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